AI. LEADERSHIP. ORGANIZATIONS. SOCIETY.

Understand what AI changes.
Decide how to respond.

Conversations and research from David Shapiro, Dalibor Petrovic and Daniel Käfer, for people working through what AI and automation mean for their organizations and their future.

Watch the latest conversation ↓

Serving leaders and organizations across the United States, Canada and Europe.

Because surprise
is expensive.

LATEST CONVERSATION / 11 OCTOBER 2026

Dots, Bots, and Math! Oh my!

David, Dalibor and Daniel discuss AI progress, mathematics and agents, then consider how leaders can put growing capabilities to work.

Full conversation · 65 minutes

Watch the conversation ↗
Latest Critical Path conversation

THE CONVERSATIONS

Explore Critical Path

Watch a full discussion or start with a shorter conversation.

10 conversations

Follow the original channels: David Shapiro ↗ Daniel Käfer ↗ TechTonic Conversations ↗

RESEARCH & PRACTICAL BRIEFINGS

Explore the research.

Explore the ideas behind the conversations. Each publication keeps its author’s perspective and original access route.

Critical Path research

The Jobs That Never Appear

A measurement system for turning AI-created capacity into growth, margin and organizational value.

Free paper + newsletterGet the paper ↗

Critical Path research

The Amplification Gap

A practical self-check for the gap between individual AI use and what the organization can capture.

Free paper + newsletterGet the briefing ↗

Critical Path research

Essential vs Derived Demand

Explore where people are integral to a product or service, and what that means for the future of work.

Critical Path research

The Centurion Principle

How middle managers, incentives and culture shape AI adoption.

Original publication · membership accessView original publication ↗

Critical Path research

Shadow AI: The Definitive Report

Research on unapproved AI use, its risks and how leaders can respond.

Original publication · membership accessView original publication ↗

Contributor research

How leaders become better with AI

Practical ways to use AI around leadership decisions, preparation and judgment.

Free briefing · contributor signupRequest the briefing ↗

Contributor research

How HR Actually Leads AI Transformation 2

HR’s role in redesigning work and organizational capability.

Free report · contributor signupRequest the report ↗

Contributor research

How Marketing Leads AI Transformation

How marketing leaders can shape the redesign of their function.

Second edition · contributor signupRequest the report ↗

Some papers are open to read. Others ask you to join a mailing list or access the author’s membership. Each link shows what to expect.

What do we mean by abundant intelligence?

In this work, abundant intelligence refers to increasingly accessible intelligent systems and the possibilities they create. We explore how leaders and organizations can use that capability while retaining judgment and accountability.

THE CRITICAL PATH NEWSLETTER

Keep thinking
with us.

Join the Critical Path list for new conversations, research and updates as the collaboration develops.

IN DEVELOPMENT

Work more deeply
with Critical Path.

Explore three planned monthly memberships: Frontier at US$ 8, Navigator at US$ 250, and Legacy at US$ 2,500.

Frontier is planned to deliver a full weekly five-story AI report by email, with source links, analysis and leadership implications. Navigator adds David Shapiro’s online courses, currently in development, and a planned general TIO AI advisor, subject to capability validation and defined usage limits.

Legacy adds five total principal hours per month across Dalibor Petrovic, David Shapiro and Daniel Käfer, by preference and availability, plus a planned client-specific TIO AI advisor using approved client information. Capacity is limited; advisor capabilities and privacy arrangements are still being validated.

Paid memberships are not open yet. Frontier is coming soon; you can register interest in Navigator and Legacy. Compare the memberships →

The existing TIO framework and open resource library remain freely available.

THE PEOPLE BEHIND CRITICAL PATH

Research meets leadership experience.

Daniel Käfer, TSLA Ally

Daniel Käfer

AI strategy, organizational design, and leadership through technological change.

Meet Daniel ↗

THE INTELLIGENT ORGANIZATION

Bring the conversation
into your organization.

Use the open TIO framework to examine the capabilities your organization needs across leadership, data, technology, delivery and people.

Explore the free TIO library ↗

How Marketing Leads AI Transformation

Daniel Käfer / The Strategic Edge

Research paper

Second edition · contributor signup

How marketing leaders can shape the redesign of their function.

Original publication

107

How HR Actually Leads AI Transformation 2

Daniel Käfer / The Strategic Edge

Research paper

Free report · contributor signup

HR’s role in redesigning work and organizational capability.

Original publication

106

How leaders become better with AI

Daniel Käfer / The Strategic Edge

Research paper

Free briefing · contributor signup

Practical ways to use AI around leadership decisions, preparation and judgment.

Original publication

105

Shadow AI: The Definitive Report

David Shapiro

Research paper

Original publication · membership access

Research on unapproved AI use, its risks and how leaders can respond.

Original publication

104

The Centurion Principle

David Shapiro

Research paper

Original publication · membership access

How middle managers, incentives and culture shape AI adoption.

Original publication

103

Essential vs Derived Demand

David Shapiro

Research paper

Open PDF

Explore where people are integral to a product or service, and what that means for the future of work.

Original publication

102

The Amplification Gap

Critical Path

Research paper

Free paper + newsletter

A practical self-check for the gap between individual AI use and what the organization can capture.

Original publication

101

The Jobs That Never Appear

David Shapiro

Research paper

Free paper + newsletter

A measurement system for turning AI-created capacity into growth, margin and organizational value.

Original publication

100

Why everyone lies about AI

Critical Path collaboration

Full episode

Public YouTube

Shadow AI, hidden adoption and executive fluency.

2026-07-29

Original publication

9

Stupidity is the problem

Critical Path collaboration

Full episode

Public YouTube

AI capability, judgment and the leadership response.

2026-08-07

Original publication

8

CEOs are falling behind

Critical Path collaboration

Full episode

Public YouTube

Executive adoption and management engagement.

2026-08-11

Original publication

7

Elon Musk says robots and AI will end money

Critical Path collaboration

Full episode

Public YouTube

Automation, economic change and organizational adaptation.

2026-08-25

Original publication

6

Unpacking what Astra means

Critical Path collaboration

Full episode

Public YouTube

Frontier capabilities and the gap between individual use and organizational change.

2026-09-06

Original publication

5

Opening act of the Singularity

Critical Path collaboration

Full episode

Public YouTube

AI progress and practical implications for leaders.

2026-09-11

Original publication

4

You're Already 1 Week Too Late on AI

Critical Path collaboration

Collaboration clip

Public YouTube

Leaders retain responsibility for organizational redesign while they can still shape it.

2026-09-14

Original publication

3

Most leaders use AI wrong. Here is what the top 5% do

Critical Path collaboration

Collaboration clip

Public YouTube

Personal leadership amplification and practical uses of tailored AI.

2026-10-05

Original publication

2

The AI Divide: Why Buying the Tools Isn’t Enough

Critical Path collaboration

Collaboration clip

Public YouTube

AI-enabled teams, talent policies and workflow redesign.

2026-10-11

Original publication

1

Dots, Bots, and Math! Oh my!

Critical Path collaboration

Full episode

Public YouTube

AI progress, mathematics, agents and organizational workflows.

2026-10-11

Original publication

0